Italy has been under the influence of the fourth heatwave of the summer since Wednesday, 29 July 2026. According to consistent forecasts from Italian meteorologists, it will be the most intense and most likely the longest of the season, with temperatures rising by roughly one degree per day until the peak this coming weekend. The subtropical anticyclone from North Africa has reached the entire Mediterranean region and is bringing Italy peak temperatures of up to 41 degrees, particularly in Florence and Terni. According to bulletins from the Italian Ministry of Health, on this Thursday 16 cities are on orange alert and three cities are on red alert, with a rising trend towards the weekend. This new phase follows directly on from the third heatwave of summer 2026, which had already brought 45 degrees to southern Italy in mid-July, and continues a climatic trend that climate scientists have been describing for years as the new normal for the Mediterranean region.
Specific city temperatures for the weekend
The peak of the heatwave is expected on Sunday, 2 August 2026. According to forecasts from 3bmeteo, as cited by Il Mattino, Florence and Terni will reach peak temperatures of 41 degrees, while Alessandria, Asti, Benevento, Cremona, Ferrara, Lodi, Mantova, Modena, Parma, Piacenza, Prato and Reggio Emilia will see temperatures of 40 degrees. The extreme temperatures therefore affect the whole of central and northern Italy, in particular the Po Valley and the inland areas of Tuscany, Umbria and Emilia-Romagna. Campania and the inland regions of Apulia will reach 36 to 38 degrees, while the inland areas of Sardinia may reach up to 41 degrees. As Meteo.it forecasts in detail for the weekend, the south will remain burdened by significantly higher humidity levels, which further intensifies the subjective perception of heat.
The temperatures are seven to eight degrees above the climatological average for the respective regions. The freezing level in the Alps is rising to between 4,600 and 4,800 metres, which is also heating the high-altitude regions of the Dolomites and the Western Alps to unusually elevated temperatures. Particularly gruelling are the tropical nights, during which minimum temperatures in Milan will not drop below 27 to 28 degrees, while in Bologna and Rome they will remain at 26 to 27 degrees. For many people without air conditioning, this means several days of sleep quality close to zero. The anticyclone, according to analysis by Open of the weather situation across Europe as a whole, is allowing neither frontal passages nor any sustained windows of cooler conditions.
The Bollini warning levels from the Ministry of Health
The Italian Ministry of Health publishes daily warning levels for 27 Italian cities during the summer months, known as the Bollini. On this Thursday, 30 July 2026, 16 cities are on orange alert and three cities are on red alert. The three red cities are Campobasso, Perugia and Rieti, all of them inland locations with particularly high heat stress. As recently as Wednesday, ten cities were on orange and three on red, and the trend is clearly upward. As Voce Libera reports from the Ministero della Salute bulletin, the number of red cities could rise to seven or eight by the weekend.
The ministry's warning levels carry concrete health implications. The orange Bollini indicates a risk level 2, which is already considered a health concern for elderly people, young children and those with chronic illnesses. The red Bollini indicates a risk level 3, which affects the population as a whole. Those staying in one of these cities are advised to follow recommendations on avoiding physical exertion during the core hours between 11 a.m. and 6 p.m., maintaining adequate fluid intake and seeking cooler indoor spaces. Particularly oppressive is the muggy, tropical humid heat of the Po Valley, known in Italian as afa , because the high humidity in the north amplifies the actual heat stress beyond what the thermometer alone registers and allows little physical recovery either by day or by night.
Wildfire risk rises: EFFIS warning from 31 July
The direct consequence of the heatwave is a continued increase in wildfire risk. The European Copernicus civil protection warning system EFFIS has issued a significantly elevated fire danger warning for southern Italy from 31 July onwards, with the risk extending to central Italian regions from the beginning of August. The third heatwave alone had already led to one of the most severe wildfire series in recent years , affecting regions from Sardinia through Piedmont to Calabria and Sicily. The situation is particularly acute in Sicily, where 16,834 hectares burned in a single week alone, including in the provinces of Palermo and Agrigento.
The civil protection agency SOUP of Apulia documented 1,465 fires between 15 June and 23 July, with a particular concentration on the Gargano peninsula. During the weekend of 26 July, around 300 tourists had to be evacuated by boat from the sea at Peschici and Vieste. For the fourth heatwave, which is further worsening the dry state of the vegetation, civil protection authorities are expecting this series of fires to continue. According to reports from Adnkronos , several new outbreaks were already recorded in Calabria and Sardinia on Wednesday, the first day of the fourth heatwave.
Water supply, agriculture and harvest records
The water supply is also under pressure. The The water level of Lake Garda is low after several weeks of high temperatures, with noticeable effects on agriculture, fish stocks and inland navigation. Lake Como and Lake Iseo are also showing significantly reduced water levels. Across the Po basin system, several regions have restricted water extraction and have prioritised drinking water over irrigation. Agriculture is suffering particularly from the combination of heat and drought. The most dramatic effects are being felt on the traditional Parmigiano-Reggiano production in Emilia-Romagna, where the milk yield of cows regularly falls by ten to fifteen per cent during the height of summer.
A further climate signal is the historically early harvest(vendemmia). According to reports from L'Espresso, the harvest in Oltrepò Pavese began as early as July, representing a historic record for the region's Sangiovese and Barbera wines. Similar advances in the harvest date are being reported from Tuscany, Piedmont and Sicily, where classic September harvest periods have now shifted forward by two to three weeks. Climate scientists are identifying this development as a clear signal of the shift in the growing season that has been forecast for the Mediterranean region for years.
Climatic context and Ferragosto forecast
For meteorologists, the fourth heatwave forms part of a broader pattern. As Lorenzo Tedici, meteorological director of iLMeteo.it, explained to Adnkronos, current temperatures are heavily influenced by climate change. The subtropical anticyclone dominating the weather is pushing further north than in previous decades and is lingering longer over Europe. According to calculations by the Copernicus Climate Change Service, Europe is warming at twice the rate of the global average, and the Mediterranean region is among the most severely affected zones in the world. This increases the likelihood that current temperatures will become the new normal in summers to come.
The forecast for the end of the heatwave remains uncertain. Meteorologists had originally predicted an end around 9 August; this forecast has since been revised to 12 to 13 August. It cannot be ruled out that the heatwave will persist until Ferragosto on 15 August, or even beyond. According to Manuel Mazzoleni of 3bmeteo, the fourth heatwave will be "the most intense of summer 2026" and marks a turning point in the climatic assessment of the season. For travel and holiday planning, this means that the extreme conditions are likely to persist for at least another ten days.
What this means for travellers
The fourth heatwave coincides with a period of peak travel activity. Italy is summer 2026's most sought-after holiday destination in Europe, with an OTA occupancy rate of 51.2 per cent, and the classic city-break destinations of Rome, Florence, Milan and Bologna are correspondingly busy. Anyone visiting one of these cities over the next ten days would do well to adapt their sightseeing plans. In Florence , with temperatures expected to reach 41 degrees at the weekend, outdoor sightseeing during the afternoon hours is virtually impossible. The Uffizi and other air-conditioned museums will consequently see very high visitor numbers.
For mountain regions , it is advisable to take note of the altered conditions in the high mountains, including a high freezing level, shifting weather windows and an increased risk of afternoon thunderstorms, particularly in the Alps and the Dolomites. A stay by the sea, with water temperatures of around 27 to 28 degrees on the Adriatic and 26 to 28 degrees on the Tyrrhenian Sea, is a sensible alternative to sightseeing in city centres. Alerts and warnings should also be checked regularly; the Italian warning system Allerta Meteo is, alongside the Bollini, the central instrument through which regions and local authorities keep the public informed about weather-related risks.
